Why Some Goals Fail – Gartner Hype?

This year, once again, I set New Year’s Resolutions, even though, per Forbes.com, 80% of New Year’s resolutions fail by the beginning of February.  I’ve wondered WHY?  Have you?  I found insight in the strangest of places – in reading NATO Science and Technology  Organization – Science and Technology Trends.  The Gartner Hype Cycle – familiar?  TRIGGER – EXPECTATION – DISILLUSIONMENT – ENLIGHTENMENT – PRODUCTIVITY.  Its genius in its simple elegance.

My question for you – For your truly significant, BIG HAIRY AUDACIOUS GOALS (per Jim Collins in Built to Last) that have either failed or succeeded or are progressing, have they followed such a cycle?

Per the NATO article, “Technologies do not always progress from beginning to the end of such a cycle; indeed most technologies fail.  Many avenues of science or technological discovery never brekthrough to ignite innovation, or they disappear from public consciousness after initial enthusiasm as unproductive avenues of development, or they may appear later on as new convergent developments reinvigorating an old idea.  Finally, even successful technologies may reappear as novel ideas create innovation triggers and old technologies becomes so integrated into production systems that the original connection is lost on all but the most technically minded.  Such an evolutionary process built on heroic failures or creative errors is essential to scientific and technological progress as lessons and ideas that arise will often lead to entirely new areas for exploration, innovation, and development. (Bolding is mine.)

Per the NATO article, a successful technology will go through 5 phases:

Innovation Trigger:  After a long period…  a potential new technology break-through starts to show promise.    This spark yields growing…activity. 

Peak of Inflated Expectations: Early publicity produces many success stories – often accompanied by scores of failures…  Interest is at an all-time peak.

Trough of Dissillusionment:  The limitations of the technology become clear, and some implementation efforts fail to produce useful results.   As a result, general interest fails, and negative stories become more frequent, although these may be overly pessimistic.   Eventually, some developers and producers move onto other areas or fail outright.

Slope of Enlightenment:   With a better understanding of what is practical and where it can be best applied, the potential begin to crystallize and become more widely understood and appreciated.  Next-generation products occur, and positive attention begins to increase…

Plateau of Productivity:  Mainstream adoption occurs.  With a better understanding of value, applicability and limitations, the technology has found its market. 

The article goes on to say, balancing out the highs of inflated expectations and the lows of the trough of disillusionment is a critical task in making investment and long term capability decisions.

For me, I can say that “everything” meaningful I have pursued and completed have followed a process like this – whether professional or personal.  I come out of the gate full of energy and enthusiasm but quickly become overwhelmed and disillustioned.  If the project is important enough for me, I then enter a rumination phase where I refine the idea (usually over and over again, oftentimes at 3 in the MORNING) and come out with a better “product.”  I agree with NATO – many of my hair brained ideas fall away, but the meaningful ideas remain and when completed, are better through the enlightment of rumination.  As NATO says…  Finally, even successful technologies may reappear as novel ideas create innovation triggers and old technologies becomes so integrated into production systems that the original connection is lost on all but the most technically minded. 

This year I commit to being kind to myself IF my resolutions go by the wayside – knowing that the idea wasn’t meaningful enough OR will be rekindled at the right time and in the right way.

My question for you – what is your method for selecting resolutions and pushing them through to completion?  How will you handle the “failure” if your resolution doesn’t come to life?